Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4F 0x4f12…8140 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$26,636 (+59%) realized +$26,636 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip

Net edge+35%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$9,060per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$999est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+49.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+65.0%	+49.3%	60%	60%	+67.5%
≤30d	5	+65.0%	+49.3%	60%	60%	+67.5%
≤90d	5	+65.0%	+49.3%	60%	60%	+67.5%
all	5	+65.0%	+49.3%	60%	60%	+67.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+49.3%	60%	+67.5%
10% ← realistic here	+35.0%	60%	+51.5%
15%	+21.9%	60%	+36.9%
20%	+10.0%	60%	+23.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +85% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +65% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17,697 vs −$7,362 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$26,636

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$999

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$9,060

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$10,197	+$12,098	+119%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$10,213	+$24,270	+238%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$9,919	+$16,722	+169%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$4,999	−$4,886	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$9,974	−$9,838	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	77¢	$22,295	47m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	34¢	$10,197	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	37¢	$9,919	3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$10,213	4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	23¢	$4,999	7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	54¢	$9,974	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records