Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f12…effb sports 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$372 (-6%) realized −$372 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%124W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$195
14 days+$74
30 days−$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$462
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -9.0% -17.6% 48% 45% -17.6%
≤30d 244 -0.0% -9.6% 51% 48% -15.8%
≤90d 244 -0.0% -9.6% 51% 48% -15.8%
all 244 -0.0% -9.6% 51% 48% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 48% -15.8%
10% -18.2% 40% -23.8%
15% -26.1% 30% -31.2%
20% -33.4% 26% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses124 / 120
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 253
History coverage24d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Under 72¢ 51¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $67 −$3 -4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $34 +$19 +55%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $71 +$7 +10%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 24 $49 −$48 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $125 +$15 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $14 +$21 +146%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $20 $0 -1%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 Jun 24 $14 +$17 +119%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 24 $25 +$16 +65%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 +26%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $63 +$20 +32%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 23 $9 −$1 -10%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Mia Jun 23 $66 −$64 -98%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $30 −$25 -83%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $17 −$17 -99%
Altmaier vs. Kovacevic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $34 −$33 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 179.5 Jun 23 $14 −$13 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 23 $11 +$8 +67%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 +30%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $68 −$7 -10%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $27 −$27 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $33 −$3 -9%
Williams vs. Begu: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -99%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $27 −$27 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 22 $8 +$3 +32%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 22 $12 +$12 +97%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $85 +$10 +12%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $23 −$2 -9%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 21 $14 −$13 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5) Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se Jun 21 $70 +$18 +26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $22 +$1 +6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 +252%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $64 −$64 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N Jun 21 $41 +$3 +8%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +28%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $13 +$7 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $7 +$7 +97%
Johnson vs. Arango: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 57¢ $64 0m
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $67 0m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $0 19m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 84¢ $20 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 64¢ $34 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 44¢ $54 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 40¢ $51 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY Yes 48¢ $49 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 50¢ $5 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Teodora Kostovic 43¢ $95 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 46¢ $105 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 44¢ $20 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Bianca Andreescu 40¢ $14 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch SELL Dane Sweeny 74¢ $20 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch BUY Dane Sweeny 74¢ $20 11h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $25 24h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 45¢ $14 24h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $10 25h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 25h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 79¢ $0 26h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $32 27h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $34 27h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) SELL Texas Rangers 26¢ $8 27h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 28¢ $9 27h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 59¢ $51 27h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 33¢ $29 27h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Mia BUY Yes 15¢ $66 27h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Benjamin Hassan 61¢ $3 32h
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 43¢ $26 33h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 51¢ $17 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.44 · official $7.71 · 442 history records