Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f12…030a crypto 25 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+30%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$20
other 15% −$3
sports 7% $0
world 7% $0
tech 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +48.4% +34.3% 32% 28% +8.2%
≤30d 25 +48.4% +34.3% 32% 28% +8.2%
≤90d 25 +48.4% +34.3% 32% 28% +8.2%
all 25 +48.4% +34.3% 32% 28% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.3% 28% +8.2%
10% +21.4% 28% -2.1%
15% +9.7% 24% -11.6%
20% -1.1% 24% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +136% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$45 +2197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $47 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records