Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f15…650d
sports · 434 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$920 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$920 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$920
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses244 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions0
Markets (closed)434 / 434
History coverage141d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 0 History 434 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$97
14 days+$211
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) Cilic 61¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 67¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Islanders vs. Sabres Islanders 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-05? No 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Podrez (+1.5) Podrez 40¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Passion UA 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B NIP 82¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Anna Bondar vs Elina Svitolina Elina Svitolina 84¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Giravanz Kitakyūshū win on 2026-05-10? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5) Yunnan Yukun FC 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 39¢ 0¢ $248 $0 −$248 (-100%)
Will FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc win on 2026-05-08? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Pliskova 72¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Blaublitz Akita win on 2026-05-10? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) Muchova 56¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Heat Heat 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $201 −$40 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $101 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$18 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $101 −$34 -33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 +$18 +36%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $25 +$5 +20%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $202 −$51 -25%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $101 +$31 +30%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $101 +$19 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $50 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $101 +$25 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $201 +$22 +11%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 07 $202 +$73 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $50 +$2 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $50 +$16 +31%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 05 $101 −$7 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $151 +$15 +10%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Jun 04 $71 +$23 +33%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 04 $101 +$64 +63%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 02 $101 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $71 −$54 -77%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 02 $100 +$20 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $100 +$30 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez May 25 $97 −$47 -48%
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian May 25 $50 −$20 -39%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic May 24 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sport Boys Association win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Vejle BK win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$971
other 0% +$53
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 70¢ $161 32m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $201 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $60 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $50 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $51 24h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 69¢ $95 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $50 24h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $101 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $119 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $50 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 84¢ $100 27h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Nick Kyrgios 54¢ $67 27h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 79¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $69 30h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $50 32h
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $30 32h
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 82¢ $25 32h
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $76 2d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 66¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Victoria Mboko 34¢ $76 2d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 66¢ $152 2d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 100¢ $131 2d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 76¢ $101 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 85¢ $50 2d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 83¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.8% -3.4% 71% 67% -5.0%
≤30d 40 -10.5% -19.0% 60% 55% -5.3%
≤90d 337 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 48% -13.2%
all 434 -1.0% -10.5% 56% 50% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 50% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 41% -19.3%
15% -26.9% 32% -27.1%
20% -34.0% 24% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 816 history records