Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4F 0x4f16…553d sports 694 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,658 (+4%) realized +$4,422 · open +$699
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%323W / 349L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1,446est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$9,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,468
7 days+$5,805
14 days+$8,927
30 days−$9,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$5,832
crypto 2% −$2,084
other 2% +$1,701
politics 1% −$328
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +5.0% -5.0% 54% 52% -1.1%
≤30d 498 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 35% -17.2%
≤90d 498 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 35% -17.2%
all 672 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 47% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -6.8%
10% -21.0% 44% -15.7%
15% -28.7% 38% -23.8%
20% -35.7% 32% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$149 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$9,373
Realized+$4,422
Unrealized+$699
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses323 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,446
Open positions22
Markets (closed)672 / 694
History coverage229d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 94¢ $588 $1,037 +$449 (+76%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $300 $1,034 +$734 (+245%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 59¢ 60¢ $600 $615 +$15 (+2%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 57¢ 56¢ $590 $580 −$10 (-2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 66¢ 66¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ 64¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 60¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 56¢ 55¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 49¢ 46¢ $500 $465 −$35 (-7%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 63¢ 64¢ $388 $397 +$9 (+2%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 59¢ 58¢ $400 $393 −$7 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 37¢ 36¢ $388 $377 −$11 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 52¢ $300 $315 +$15 (+5%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 58¢ 58¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 54¢ 54¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 47¢ 46¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ 46¢ $300 $259 −$41 (-14%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ 54¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 45¢ 44¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 45¢ 44¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 18¢ $570 $187 −$383 (-67%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 52¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 23¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $304 +$246 +81%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $203 +$142 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $304 −$248 -82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $356 +$458 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $304 +$232 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $304 +$284 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $354 +$202 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$273 -89%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $304 +$251 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $304 +$273 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $305 +$320 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $304 +$273 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $305 +$426 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $355 +$345 +97%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $508 −$208 -41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $347 +$683 +197%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $303 −$202 -67%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $347 −$277 -80%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $154 +$636 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$173 +57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $304 +$188 +62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $608 −$600 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $203 −$178 -88%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $254 +$278 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $203 −$146 -72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $657 −$650 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,075 −$146 -7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $305 +$362 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $235 −$230 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $355 −$350 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $168 +$183 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$86 -84%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $153 +$184 +120%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $254 +$219 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $203 +$155 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $253 +$126 +50%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $203 +$223 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $123 −$120 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $253 +$210 +83%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $205 +$793 +387%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $405 +$241 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $133 +$79 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $806 +$223 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $253 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $254 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $254 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $304 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $305 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $304 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $505 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $505 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $507 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $506 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 10¢ $56 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $71 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $61 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $41 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $101 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 59¢ $405 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $395 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $508 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $607 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 41¢ $479 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $509 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $89 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $101 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $30 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $30 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $30 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 57¢ $304 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 55¢ $304 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,373.29 · official $9,373.40 (match) · 1919 history records