Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f18…d662 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
other 18% −$1
politics 15% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
sports 7% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.2%
all 62 -0.6% -10.1% 23% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage278d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $74 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$2 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $45 +$2 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $106 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $72 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 31 $8 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 08 $23 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $4 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $3 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 05 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $9 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $28 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $6 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $30 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $36 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $40 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $36 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 84¢ $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $35 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $35 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $32 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $24 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $39 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $37 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 14d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records