Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4f1a…26c0 sports 1004 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,050 (+3%) realized +$1,068 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%537W / 462L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$138
other 24% +$923
finance 1% +$17
world 0% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +14.6% +3.7% 62% 62% -8.0%
≤30d 8 +14.6% +3.7% 62% 62% -8.0%
≤90d 251 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 55% -7.6%
all 999 +2.1% -7.6% 54% 52% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 52% -7.3%
10% -16.4% 47% -16.2%
15% -24.5% 43% -24.3%
20% -31.9% 37% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$27 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$1,068
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses537 / 462
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions5
Markets (closed)999 / 1004
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 999 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 55¢ 54¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $19 −$16 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$16 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$14 +55%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $40 +$22 +55%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $30 −$30 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $40 +$16 +40%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $20 +$14 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 03 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $25 +$18 +70%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $25 +$18 +70%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $50 +$14 +27%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 30 $40 +$5 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Southampton FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Apr 29 $25 +$15 +60%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $40 +$11 +27%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco Gauff Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 28 $40 +$37 +93%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $20 +$25 +124%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar Apr 27 $50 +$16 +32%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Apr 27 $40 +$14 +34%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $50 +$18 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Apr 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $40 +$26 +65%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $40 +$37 +93%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $50 +$9 +18%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $40 +$29 +73%
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 Apr 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 20 $40 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $25 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $25 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $25 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $25 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $10 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $25 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 20h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $26 47h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $25 47h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $25 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $25 47h
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $41 32d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 64¢ $40 32d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY No 64¢ $40 36d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $40 37d
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 37d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY No 46¢ $20 37d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 39d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 62¢ $51 39d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $40 43d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 71¢ $40 43d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $30 44d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 58¢ $20 44d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 44¢ $20 44d
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 88¢ $40 48d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 49d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $25 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY No 58¢ $25 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.46 · official $117.46 (match) · 3500 history records