Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f1b…9876 crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,631 (-25%) realized −$5,631 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%33W / 69L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$344
7 days−$1,119
14 days−$1,119
30 days−$1,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$4,363
sports 27% +$1,958
world 9% −$1,564
crypto 8% −$764
economics 3% −$123
tech 1% −$58
politics 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 33% -15.7%
≤30d 57 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 33% -15.7%
≤90d 57 +0.8% -8.8% 37% 33% -15.7%
all 102 -12.9% -21.2% 32% 29% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 29% -29.1%
10% -28.8% 26% -35.9%
15% -35.6% 25% -42.1%
20% -41.9% 23% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -27% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$167 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses33 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage594d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $167 +$692 +414%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $436 +$324 +74%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 −$14 -20%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$221 +216%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$347 +114%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 −$73 -83%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1,990 −$1,990 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$90 -44%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$57 -72%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $506 +$288 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$513 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$94 +46%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $101 +$43 +42%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$34 -34%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $308 −$35 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $308 −$33 -11%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $607 +$98 +16%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $403 −$330 -82%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$63 -63%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$18 -17%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 +$65 +213%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $579 +$351 +61%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $297 −$30 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,522 −$1,522 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$50 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$294 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$46 -90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $605 −$119 -20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,289 +$867 +67%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$200 +649%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $531 +$580 +109%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $54 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $167 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 49¢ $132 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $95 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $203 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $54 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $67 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 56¢ $304 21h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 56¢ $709 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $115 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $79 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records