Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4F 0x4f1c…ca9d sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$286 (+28%) realized +$406 · open −$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +161% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +127% what you keep after slip
Net edge+127%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$209
sports 38% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+136.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +161.4% +136.5% 78% 78% +48.5%
≤30d 9 +161.4% +136.5% 78% 78% +48.5%
≤90d 9 +161.4% +136.5% 78% 78% +48.5%
all 9 +161.4% +136.5% 78% 78% +48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +136.5% 78% +48.5%
10% +113.9% 78% +34.2%
15% +93.2% 78% +21.3%
20% +74.3% 56% +9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +161% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$11 · ×4.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.58 per $1 lost it wins $16.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$406
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $144 $141 −$3 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $99 $77 −$22 (-22%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 59¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $5 +$59 +1257%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $152 +$94 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 +$55 +57%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $55 +$49 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$54 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $84 +$30 +36%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $95 +$39 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $96 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $148 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 7¢ $5 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end BUY 18¢ $20 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 56¢ $86 26h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $246 40h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 41h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $102 44h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $97 47h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $55 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $84 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.31 · official $218.41 (match) · 22 history records