Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f1d…8de2
other · 845 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$113,976 +178%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30,726 · open −$27,668
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,267
Realized−$30,726
Unrealized−$27,668
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses18 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions499
Markets (closed)168 / 845
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day2464.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 499 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30,726
7 days−$30,726
14 days−$30,726
30 days−$30,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 60¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 39¢ 67¢ $44 $77 +$33 (+74%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 38¢ 30¢ $75 $59 −$16 (-21%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 33¢ 37¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? No 50¢ 60¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? Yes 48¢ 59¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+22%)
Will Northampton Saints win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Yes 5¢ 36¢ $3 $22 +$19 (+656%)
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? No 72¢ 82¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+14%)
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? No 96¢ 56¢ $32 $19 −$13 (-41%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 93¢ 93¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat? No 74¢ 68¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat? No 60¢ 38¢ $15 $10 −$6 (-37%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $127 $9 −$118 (-93%)
Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+242%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 72¢ 70¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 72¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+37%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 83¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+315%)
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 47¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+182%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $250 $8 −$242 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $58 −$28 -49%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $241 −$241 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $242 −$240 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $225 −$189 -84%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $220 −$184 -84%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $221 −$185 -84%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $220 −$184 -84%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $216 −$192 -89%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $206 −$170 -82%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $223 −$187 -84%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $196 −$160 -82%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $209 −$185 -88%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $208 −$172 -83%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $205 −$193 -94%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $199 −$187 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $211 −$199 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 Jun 12 $33 −$15 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $33 −$15 -46%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $167 −$137 -82%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $163 −$139 -85%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $74 −$61 -81%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $497 −$490 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $507 −$495 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $511 −$511 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $1,164 −$1,164 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,157 −$1,157 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $971 −$971 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,181 −$1,181 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$9 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $426 −$426 -100%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $425 −$425 -100%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $422 −$422 -100%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $510 −$488 -96%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $420 −$344 -82%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $418 −$418 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$37,890
tech 14% −$9,211
politics 9% −$5,499
sports 7% −$94
economics 6% −$4,368
weather 5% −$78
finance 2% −$831
world 1% −$320
culture 1% −$81
crypto 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 100¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 47¢ $2 0m
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 82¢ $6 3m
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 97¢ $7 3m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 50¢ $4 3m
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 69¢ $5 3m
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 82¢ $49 5m
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 97¢ $291 5m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $299 5m
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 69¢ $208 5m
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 70¢ $42 5m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 50¢ $30 5m
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $60 5m
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 97¢ $58 5m
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 82¢ $247 5m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 50¢ $152 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 97¢ $10 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 97¢ $10 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 76¢ $8 8m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 27¢ $3 8m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $23 12m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $24 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -79.8% -81.7% 11% 2% -95.2%
≤30d 168 -79.8% -81.7% 11% 2% -95.2%
≤90d 168 -79.8% -81.7% 11% 2% -95.2%
all 168 -79.8% -81.7% 11% 2% -95.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2464.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -81.7% 2% -95.2%
10% ← realistic here -83.5% 2% -95.7%
15% -85.1% 1% -96.1%
20% -86.5% 1% -96.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,267.20 · official $1,284.86 · 3500 history records