Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f1d…708b
other · 15 markets active 10h ago
8.5score
+$62,101 +64%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$62,394 · open −$292
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$18,148
Realized+$62,394
Unrealized−$292
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1,107
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
Avg bet$6,459
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 3 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days+$60,803
14 days+$60,803
30 days+$60,803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6,645 $6,551 −$94 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6,000 $5,857 −$143 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,795 $5,740 −$56 (-1%)
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $115 +$353 +307%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11,528 +$12,591 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $21,972 +$43,230 +197%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $12,698 +$4,629 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Dec 18 $6,837 +$39 +1%
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 18 $843 −$842 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Dec 15 $8,790 −$1,954 -22%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 09 $8,269 +$4,272 +52%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 05 $3,810 +$1,299 +34%
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 03 $1,922 −$1,862 -97%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $1,104 +$684 +62%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Nov 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% +$60,803
other 21% +$391
crypto 20% −$616
politics 11% +$1,567
world 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6,823 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6,176 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5,960 14h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 24¢ $115 34h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $24,120 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $30 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $11,498 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $65,201 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $12,899 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 52¢ $12,957 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $19 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $4,371 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 52¢ $4,370 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $4,682 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $51 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $12,647 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? SELL No 83¢ $6,876 541d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? BUY No 83¢ $6,837 543d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? SELL No 44¢ $6,836 543d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL No 78¢ $0 549d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? BUY No 57¢ $8,790 549d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL No 79¢ $8,000 549d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL No 79¢ $790 549d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY No 46¢ $5,109 553d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,109 554d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,810 554d
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL No 42¢ $3,750 554d
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 555d
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? SELL No 1¢ $60 555d
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? BUY No 25¢ $1,922 557d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +162.5% +137.5% 100% 100% +109.3%
≤30d 4 +162.5% +137.5% 100% 100% +109.3%
≤90d 4 +162.5% +137.5% 100% 100% +109.3%
all 12 +39.9% +26.6% 67% 58% +62.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.6% 58% +62.9%
10% ← realistic here +14.5% 58% +47.3%
15% +3.4% 50% +33.1%
20% -6.7% 42% +20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,148.06 · official $18,148.06 (match) · 39 history records