Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f1e…627d crypto 20 markets active 6d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$80 (-25%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$89
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$99
other 2% $0
tech 2% −$5
politics 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -24.2% -31.5% 20% 13% -37.6%
≤30d 18 -36.9% -42.9% 17% 11% -40.9%
≤90d 20 -32.1% -38.6% 20% 15% -39.7%
all 20 -32.1% -38.6% 20% 15% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 15% -39.7%
10% -44.5% 15% -45.4%
15% -49.8% 15% -50.7%
20% -54.8% 5% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage48d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$16 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 10 $115 −$13 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $71 −$42 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 $0 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $4 $0 -8%
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +45%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on April 23? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$2 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET SELL Down $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Down $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET SELL Down $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records