Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f1f…4a48
sports · 314 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$249 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$232 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$361
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses94 / 200
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions20
Markets (closed)294 / 314
History coverage158d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 20 History 294 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$46
14 days+$138
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 25¢ 100¢ $30 $120 +$89 (+297%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 54¢ 52¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 80¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 55¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 78¢ 93¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+20%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 70¢ 90¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+29%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 69¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 77¢ 97¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+26%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 40¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 34¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 38¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 53¢ 62¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 71¢ 65¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 75¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Yes 68¢ 4¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-93%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks Manhattan Jaspers 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$11 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $45 +$4 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$89 +291%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +49%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $15 +$14 +93%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $25 +$29 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $30 −$29 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $15 +$20 +129%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $15 +$18 +119%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $15 +$19 +124%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $15 +$13 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $15 +$15 +101%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$2 -12%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $15 +$13 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $15 +$15 +101%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $15 +$16 +109%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $15 +$22 +146%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $28 +$9 +31%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $14 +$9 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 01 $14 +$12 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 01 $14 +$13 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $14 +$13 +93%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $14 +$15 +105%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 01 $14 +$15 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $14 −$14 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 31 $14 +$12 +86%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $14 +$15 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 May 31 $14 +$17 +119%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $28 +$23 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% −$220
world 14% +$22
other 4% −$50
finance 3% +$26
tech 1% −$24
politics 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $17 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $17 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $15 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $15 2h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $15 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $7 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $13 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $2 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $15 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $14 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $7 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $12 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.3% -2.0% 50% 42% -21.2%
≤30d 127 +2.9% -6.9% 51% 50% -7.3%
≤90d 129 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 50% -8.8%
all 294 -8.5% -17.2% 32% 32% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 32% -14.5%
10% -25.1% 32% -22.6%
15% -32.4% 30% -30.1%
20% -39.0% 27% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.62 · official $360.62 (match) · 838 history records