Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4F 0x4f20…5c4d world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$16 (+16%) realized +$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$15
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +13.2%
≤30d 2 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +13.2%
≤90d 2 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +13.2%
all 2 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 100% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 100% +13.2%
10% +1.6% 50% +2.4%
15% -8.3% 0% -7.5%
20% -17.2% 0% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on July 1? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $41 +$12 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $53 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on July 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.93 · official $33.93 (match) · 9 history records