Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f21…2f95 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,410 (+13%) realized +$2,284 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$861per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$2,202
14 days+$2,202
30 days+$2,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$2,205
crypto 46% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.3% -3.8% 78% 56% +10.1%
≤30d 9 +6.3% -3.8% 78% 56% +10.1%
≤90d 9 +6.3% -3.8% 78% 56% +10.1%
all 16 -7.5% -16.3% 69% 56% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 56% +10.1%
10% -24.3% 50% -0.4%
15% -31.6% 44% -10.1%
20% -38.3% 19% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$69 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.33 per $1 lost it wins $7.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$6,097
Realized+$2,284
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage130d
Avg bet$861
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $5,614 $5,710 +$96 (+2%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $358 $387 +$30 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $328 +$21 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $336 +$139 +41%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 24 $339 −$339 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $209 +$130 +62%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $337 +$127 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,886 +$129 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,165 +$1,722 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $531 +$277 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 15 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 15 $1 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands leading at halftime? AND Argentina leading at halftime? BUY 49¢ $348 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $348 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? AND Argentina leading at halftime? BUY 45¢ $476 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $475 12h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $339 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,625 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $4,009 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06- BUY 74¢ $756 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 39¢ $713 2d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $463 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $5,015 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,886 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,887 2d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 18¢ $497 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $94 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,734 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $358 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $337 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $209 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $328 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $337 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $336 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $808 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $499 6d
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 130d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 130d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,097.14 · official $8,843.27 · 49 history records