Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f28…1f36
other · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage545d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 14 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Baidu have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 22 $77 +$4 +5%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 13 $68 $0 +0%
Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Feb 21 $140 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 16 $57 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 05 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Feb 03 $111 $0 +0%
Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Jan 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17? Dec 20 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 05 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 08 $80 $0 +0%
India strike on Pakistan by August 31? Sep 01 $29 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week? May 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? Mar 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be more than $5b on Feb 21? Feb 22 $13 $0 +0%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? Feb 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17? Jan 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17? Jan 15 $19 −$8 -43%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 09 $14 $0 +3%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3? Jan 04 $14 $0 +0%
Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $14 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$3
world 16% +$1
tech 11% $0
crypto 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Baidu have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 23d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $77 32d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 56d
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 88d
Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q1 2026 BUY No 100¢ $37 94d
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 94d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $140 118d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $57 129d
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 130d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 146d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17? BUY No 100¢ $51 178d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 202d
Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $30 213d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 244d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? BUY No 100¢ $80 254d
India strike on Pakistan by August 31? BUY No 99¢ $29 290d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 100¢ $18 324d
Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 100¢ $58 378d
Will FARTCOIN be listed on Hyperliquid this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 396d
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? BUY No 100¢ $11 414d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 99¢ $106 428d
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 442d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 448d
Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 459d
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? BUY No 100¢ $27 459d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $28 462d
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be more than $5b on Feb 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 482d
Was Milei hacked? BUY No 100¢ $13 483d
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? BUY No 100¢ $23 490d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 3 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 41 -2.9% -12.1% 95% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.86 · official $56.86 (match) · 85 history records