Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4f28…969f other 45 markets active 17h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized −$27 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%35W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$30
sports 35% −$50
politics 11% +$1
world 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 88% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 91% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 41 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 0% -10.1%
all 41 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,048
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses35 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage80d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner The World 100¢ 95¢ $1,037 $986 −$51 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner Aterion Esports 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $204 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $430 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs Leo Team (+3.5) Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $282 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-12.5) vs Leo Team (+12.5) Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $85 −$32 -37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $826 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $143 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "South Carolina" 7+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Poll" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $244 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $209 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,003 −$3 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $250 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be at least $10.0B at market close on I May 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $11 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? Mar 28 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 28 $165 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 17h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $363 17h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $200 17h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $250 17h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $200 17h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $25 17h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Aterion Esports 100¢ $25 17h
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 100¢ $7 17h
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 100¢ $33 17h
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 100¢ $204 17h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $82 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-12.5) vs Leo Team (+12.5) BUY Leo Team 100¢ $300 5d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 5d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-3.5) vs Leo Team (+3.5) BUY Leo Team 100¢ $300 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $53 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $826 6d
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $143 7d
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $209 7d
Will Trump say "Poll" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $244 7d
Will Trump say "South Carolina" 7+ times during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 7d
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $430 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $997 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 20d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,048.40 · official $1,048.40 (match) · 172 history records