Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f28…654d other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$31
sports 21% −$17
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage127d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $606 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $331 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $816 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $541 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $468 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $213 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $411 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $465 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $272 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $268 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $317 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $570 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 02 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $427 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $393 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 6h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 10h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 12h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 13h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 15h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 20h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 24h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 30h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 31h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 33h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 36h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 37h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 43h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 45h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 46h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 47h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.44 · official $54.44 (match) · 1305 history records