Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4F 0x4f2a…2ba0 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$261 (-6%) realized −$261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$316
sports 20% +$238
politics 6% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -10.5%
≤30d 24 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 46% -3.7%
≤90d 32 +2.7% -7.1% 47% 41% -5.1%
all 48 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 46% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 46% -12.4%
10% -18.9% 42% -20.8%
15% -26.8% 35% -28.5%
20% -33.9% 29% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$62 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage359d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $218 +$183 +84%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $308 +$47 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$71 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $145 −$143 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $88 +$66 +74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $49 +$55 +111%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $63 +$37 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $143 −$12 -8%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $11 −$11 -95%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 +$80 +262%
CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $101 +$40 +40%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $389 +$20 +5%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: Both Teams to Score May 29 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $104 −$47 -46%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $168 +$76 +45%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $155 −$9 -6%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $50 +$14 +27%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $139 +$136 +98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $84 −$83 -98%
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5 May 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $45 +$35 +78%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $54 +$225 +414%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 09 $51 +$3 +7%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $50 −$50 -99%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $111 −$111 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $73 +$37 +51%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15? Mar 08 $20 +$15 +77%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-25? Mar 08 $50 +$26 +53%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-02-04? Feb 04 $28 −$28 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $97 −$97 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $177 −$177 -100%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-10-23? Oct 24 $50 +$13 +27%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-22? Oct 23 $102 +$35 +34%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $98 +$63 +64%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18? Oct 19 $50 +$11 +22%
Will SC Internacional win on 2025-10-18? Oct 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15? Oct 15 $105 +$48 +46%
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Oct 12 $53 +$52 +100%
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 25m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $401 25m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $115 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $115 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $65 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $65 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $46 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $72 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $145 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $36 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 53¢ $30 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $30 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $154 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 47¢ $49 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $88 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $126 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $308 18d
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records