Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f2c…9d16 sports 574 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,311 (-7%) realized −$1,216 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%214W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$269
14 days−$660
30 days−$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,657
other 18% +$34
crypto 0% +$47
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 37% -18.3%
≤30d 202 -8.5% -17.2% 38% 37% -18.0%
≤90d 426 -11.1% -19.6% 37% 37% -17.3%
all 570 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 37% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 37% -16.9%
10% -26.2% 37% -24.8%
15% -33.3% 37% -32.1%
20% -39.9% 37% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$31 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$1,216
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses214 / 356
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions4
Markets (closed)570 / 574
History coverage120d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Over 36¢ 20¢ $49 $27 −$22 (-46%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ $49 $6 −$43 (-88%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 351 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $52 −$51 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $56 −$55 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$58 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$50 +101%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $49 +$63 +128%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $70 −$69 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 +$70 +141%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $97 +$102 +105%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$149 +291%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$84 +165%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $74 −$22 -30%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $45 −$44 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$85 +84%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $66 −$65 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$52 +103%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$63 +124%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$56 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $22 +$19 +86%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$73 +146%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$55 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$102 +104%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $98 +$99 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$43 +85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $50 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $50 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $49 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $50 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $52 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $56 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 23h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $61 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $49 25h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $51 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $70 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $120 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 41¢ $50 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $199 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $97 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $51 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $51 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $49 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 46h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $35 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $135 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $23 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.24 · official $152.24 (match) · 837 history records