Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f2e…4a3e crypto 747 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate87%646W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$2
14 days−$15
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$18
other 1% $0
sports 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 40% -8.9%
≤30d 613 +2.6% -7.2% 86% 35% -8.8%
≤90d 746 +2.1% -7.6% 87% 33% -9.4%
all 746 +2.1% -7.6% 87% 33% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 33% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 14% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 7% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses646 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)746 / 747
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 57m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 57m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 58m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.34 · official $27.34 (match) · 3500 history records