Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4F 0x4f2f…ca1b sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-4%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$12
crypto 22% −$5
other 17% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +49.3% +35.0% 67% 67% +16.5%
≤30d 3 +49.3% +35.0% 67% 67% +16.5%
≤90d 3 +49.3% +35.0% 67% 67% +16.5%
all 3 +49.3% +35.0% 67% 67% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.0% 67% +16.5%
10% +22.1% 67% +5.3%
15% +10.3% 67% -4.8%
20% -0.5% 67% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Over 49¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Over 51¢ 94¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+84%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 28¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +139%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $1 55m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 2h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.60 · official $13.60 (match) · 11 history records