Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f30…fd82
weather · 54 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$46 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$200
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage96d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 4 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$38
14 days+$58
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $175 $191 +$16 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $118 +$18 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$30 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $48 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $169 +$39 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$14 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 −$79 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $246 +$32 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$9 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $85 +$37 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$23 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $106 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $6 +$4 +70%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 12 $147 +$15 +10%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 23, 2026? Mar 24 $80 +$10 +13%
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 24 $84 +$22 +26%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 202 Mar 24 $152 −$44 -29%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 23 $31 −$2 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 23 $30 −$2 -8%
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 21 $4 −$1 -33%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? Mar 18 $21 −$7 -36%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 18 $15 +$5 +33%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Mar 17 $41 −$2 -5%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Mar 17 $80 −$26 -33%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Mar 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 16 $162 −$21 -13%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Mar 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 15 $40 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Mar 15 $40 +$3 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 14 $20 −$7 -35%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 12 $1 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 12 $10 −$2 -23%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Mar 10 $19 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 44% +$25
world 30% −$40
other 15% +$27
politics 7% −$26
tech 3% +$20
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $36 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $37 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $17 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.3% -25.1% 48% 33% -5.7%
≤30d 23 -14.8% -22.9% 52% 35% -4.9%
≤90d 40 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 32% -7.9%
all 50 -9.2% -17.9% 48% 28% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 28% -9.0%
10% -25.7% 16% -17.7%
15% -32.9% 8% -25.6%
20% -39.5% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.53 · official $199.53 (match) · 212 history records