Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f30…5eb3 crypto 497 markets active 21h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+3%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate87%433W / 64L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$56
14 days+$103
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$98
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +9.2% -1.2% 83% 71% -2.9%
≤30d 158 +5.8% -4.3% 85% 61% -3.5%
≤90d 316 -0.1% -9.6% 86% 41% -7.2%
all 497 +1.7% -8.0% 87% 38% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 38% -7.4%
10% -16.8% 18% -16.2%
15% -24.8% 7% -24.3%
20% -32.2% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses433 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)497 / 497
History coverage127d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 497 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $22 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 997 history records