Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f33…196c world 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
other 24% +$11
crypto 12% $0
politics 9% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 14 -7.8% -16.5% 29% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 14 -7.8% -16.5% 29% 0% -10.4%
all 35 -2.7% -12.0% 34% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -8.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -28.1% 0% -25.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage269d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $45 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $58 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $12 −$1 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $64 +$11 +17%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -10%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $32 23m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $13 23m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $45 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $38 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $46 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records