Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f38…6309
crypto · 1092 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$66 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses946 / 146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1092 / 1092
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day182.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1092 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$66
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1092 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 35% -8.4%
≤30d 1092 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 35% -8.4%
≤90d 1092 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 35% -8.4%
all 1092 +1.1% -8.6% 87% 35% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover182.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 35% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 11% -17.1%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2191 history records