Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f3a…9ef2
crypto · 847 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses651 / 196
Open positions0
Markets (closed)847 / 847
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 847 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$33
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$29
weather 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 807 -3.9% -13.0% 78% 57% -13.0%
≤30d 834 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 57% -13.4%
≤90d 847 -4.1% -13.2% 77% 57% -12.9%
all 847 -4.1% -13.2% 77% 57% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 57% -12.9%
10% -21.5% 19% -21.3%
15% -29.1% 3% -28.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1976 history records