Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f3a…f69b world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%33W / 57L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$6
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$12
other 19% −$5
sports 16% $0
politics 12% −$16
economics 8% $0
finance 1% +$5
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 30% 10% -10.2%
≤30d 26 +1.2% -8.4% 46% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 39 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 3% -9.5%
all 90 -1.5% -10.9% 37% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses33 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage464d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $168 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $156 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $186 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $25 +$7 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $91 +$2 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $153 −$10 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $190 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $349 +$2 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $317 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $357 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $170 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $187 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $11 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $341 +$23 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $166 +$5 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $357 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $55 −$7 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $243 +$5 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $146 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $499 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $122 −$6 -5%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $926 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $1,140 −$5 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $927 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $927 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $1,020 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $64 −$2 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $255 −$13 -5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $938 +$8 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $6 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $150 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $119 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $49 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $72 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $16 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $132 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $125 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $169 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $186 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $186 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $32 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $94 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $91 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.73 · official $44.22 (match) · 301 history records