Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f3d…2023 crypto 636 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29,971 (-11%) realized −$29,798 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%403W / 227L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1,026est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$860
7 days+$6,001
14 days+$8,689
30 days+$8,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$18,036
other 26% +$6,063
crypto 11% +$165
world 6% −$15,459
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.1% -12.4% 37% 37% +19.6%
≤30d 25 +7.8% -2.4% 52% 52% +22.4%
≤90d 109 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 51% -20.3%
all 630 +0.7% -8.9% 64% 50% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% -18.6%
10% -17.6% 39% -26.4%
15% -25.6% 27% -33.5%
20% -32.9% 19% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$415 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$2,927
Realized−$29,798
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses403 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,026
Open positions4
Markets (closed)630 / 636
History coverage137d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2,000 $1,952 −$48 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $500 $481 −$19 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $500 $394 −$106 (-21%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,524 −$1,270 -83%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $1,012 +$665 +66%
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,007 +$266 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $306 −$255 -83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$500 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $204 −$107 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $512 −$23 -4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $4,038 +$1,838 +46%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $71 −$56 -78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,040 −$125 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,018 +$1,310 +129%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $505 +$268 +53%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $2,019 +$922 +46%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1,024 +$4,230 +413%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $101 +$60 +60%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 17 $803 +$127 +16%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 17 $1,000 +$393 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $203 −$200 -98%
Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 05 $100 −$32 -32%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 05 $1,004 +$121 +12%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $2,222 −$2,200 -99%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 May 04 $100 +$19 +18%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 04 $202 +$115 +57%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 04 $453 +$103 +23%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2,020 −$1,979 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $303 +$145 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $10 +$18 +172%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 02 $20 +$11 +55%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $200 +$96 +48%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 02 $200 +$96 +48%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $404 −$400 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $4,042 −$4,000 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $1,210 +$356 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $500 +$728 +146%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 26 $2,000 +$1,240 +62%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 8¢ $254 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $508 2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,677 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,022 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,012 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,007 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 26h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $96 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 27h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 23¢ $488 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,876 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $3,029 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 28h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 29h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $2,915 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $624 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,926.94 · official $2,926.94 (match) · 1599 history records