Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f3f…e356 crypto 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-9%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%77W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day77.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -4.9% -14.0% 39% 39% -19.1%
≤30d 195 -4.9% -14.0% 39% 39% -19.1%
≤90d 195 -4.9% -14.0% 39% 39% -19.1%
all 195 -4.9% -14.0% 39% 39% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 39% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 39% -26.9%
15% -29.7% 38% -33.9%
20% -36.6% 38% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses77 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day77.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$19 +1067%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 417 history records