Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f41…547c sports 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$731 (+2%) realized +$860 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%105W / 94L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$401
7 days+$108
14 days−$3,630
30 days+$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$301
other 3% −$21
crypto 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.1% +2.3% 80% 80% -2.9%
≤30d 139 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 50% -7.1%
≤90d 163 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 50% -8.3%
all 199 -8.2% -17.0% 53% 49% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 49% -8.4%
10% -24.9% 43% -17.2%
15% -32.2% 35% -25.2%
20% -38.8% 32% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$130 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$860
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses105 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions3
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage104d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Phantom 55¢ 40¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) 100 Thieves 45¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 27¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $254 +$242 +95%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $265 +$52 +20%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $348 +$107 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $345 −$345 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $261 +$52 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $510 +$139 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $364 +$146 +40%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $221 +$143 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $116 −$52 -45%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $147 −$147 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $265 +$135 +51%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 12 $161 −$161 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Phantom 55¢ $9 0m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) BUY 100 Thieves 45¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 27¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 91¢ $438 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL ex-RUBY 89¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $318 1h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 83¢ $265 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY ex-RUBY 46¢ $254 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 91¢ $455 4h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 69¢ $348 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 76¢ $345 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $313 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 83¢ $261 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $152 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 100¢ $649 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 78¢ $510 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $510 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 71¢ $364 7d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $221 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 24¢ $102 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $364 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $126 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 30¢ $64 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 30¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.66 · official $7.66 (match) · 667 history records