Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f49…231d sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$517 (+11%) realized +$588 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$386
14 days+$386
30 days+$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,533
crypto 34% −$617
other 4% −$165
economics 4% −$169
politics 1% −$49
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 29% +17.1%
≤30d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 29% +17.1%
≤90d 8 -14.0% -22.2% 25% 25% +15.3%
all 70 -27.9% -34.8% 20% 20% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 20% -21.4%
10% -41.0% 20% -28.9%
15% -46.7% 16% -35.8%
20% -51.9% 11% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$36 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$964
Realized+$588
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 56
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions20
Markets (closed)70 / 90
History coverage195d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Melissa Mullins 21¢ 18¢ $130 $110 −$20 (-16%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 26¢ 26¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card) Melsik Baghdasaryan 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims) Leon Shahbazyan 28¢ 26¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Kevin Borjas 19¢ 16¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims) Gaston Bolaños 26¢ 22¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 17¢ 18¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 8¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 8¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 8¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 8¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 6¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 8¢ 6¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-19%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 6¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 5¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$398 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $600 +$600 +100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 5? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. Bleda (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 6 Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 2-8? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Next US strike on Syria on December 14? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 6 Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by between 24% and 26.9% in December? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? Feb 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times Feb 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will 1750 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 1700 to 1749 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11? Feb 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Feb 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Feb 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will December 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will December 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will December 2025 be the 1st hottest on record? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 05 $350 −$350 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 05 $540 −$66 -12%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 202 Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Feb 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 05 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $126 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $65 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $33 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $14 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $14 1h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 28¢ $41 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $16 19h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 26¢ $23 20h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 26¢ $0 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $35 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $16 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $12 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $2 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $18 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $18 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $14 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $14 21h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 26¢ $4 23h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 28¢ $2 23h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 21¢ $74 27h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 28¢ $7 27h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 28¢ $7 27h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 28¢ $44 27h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 27¢ $102 27h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 21¢ $17 27h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 21¢ $9 27h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 26¢ $74 27h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 26¢ $70 2d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 26¢ $2 3d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 26¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $964.24 · official $964.24 (match) · 511 history records