Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4F 0x4f4c…2b6a crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9 (+5%) realized +$11 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$9
other 26% +$9
world 13% $0
finance 8% −$1
politics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.4% +6.2% 82% 45% +0.1%
≤30d 11 +17.4% +6.2% 82% 45% +0.1%
≤90d 11 +17.4% +6.2% 82% 45% +0.1%
all 11 +17.4% +6.2% 82% 45% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 45% +0.1%
10% -4.0% 27% -9.5%
15% -13.2% 18% -18.2%
20% -21.7% 9% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.55 per $1 lost it wins $8.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Down 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 83¢ 69¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Up 46¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 41¢ 31¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 69¢ $10 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 48¢ $20 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $20 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 66¢ $10 19h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 41¢ $4 42h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 83¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.08 · official $23.08 (match) · 34 history records