Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f4e…d3e1 crypto 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$132 (+3%) realized +$137 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%234W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$215
14 days+$325
30 days+$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$269
other 9% −$60
sports 6% −$35
tech 1% −$2
weather 1% $0
world 0% −$6
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.2% -16.9% 37% 33% +16.2%
≤30d 58 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 45% +15.9%
≤90d 290 -11.0% -19.5% 48% 38% -8.6%
all 422 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 42% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 42% -6.4%
10% -20.0% 29% -15.4%
15% -27.7% 22% -23.6%
20% -34.8% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses234 / 188
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)422 / 426
History coverage114d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 22¢ 20¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-7%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 43¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $273 +$286 +105%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $60 −$6 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -81%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$10 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$63 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$21 +91%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$33 +650%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$46 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$32 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$20 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $38 16m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $31 16m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $226 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $16 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.18 · official $162.19 (match) · 2084 history records