Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f4e…506b world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$169 (+2%) realized +$84 · open +$85
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$33
14 days+$30
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$83
politics 21% +$57
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.6% -7.2% 80% 10% -6.3%
≤30d 18 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 11% -7.5%
≤90d 18 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 11% -7.5%
all 18 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 11% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 11% -7.5%
10% -16.0% 0% -16.3%
15% -24.1% 0% -24.4%
20% -31.5% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.28 per $1 lost it wins $8.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$4,182
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)18 / 30
History coverage25d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,709 $1,747 +$38 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $625 $630 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $542 $544 +$1 (+0%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $466 $471 +$5 (+1%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $289 $291 +$2 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $115 $146 +$31 (+27%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $115 $123 +$8 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $50 $47 −$4 (-8%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $648 +$19 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $54 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $53 +$10 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $182 −$3 -1%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $293 −$4 -1%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $56 +$3 +5%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $148 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $210 +$22 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $673 +$3 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 98¢ $37 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 4h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $361 4h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $179 4h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $105 4h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $173 4h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $46 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $201 4h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $241 4h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $402 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $201 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $172 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 93¢ $53 5h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 94¢ $57 5h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 5h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 94¢ $45 5h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,181.67 · official $4,181.74 (match) · 184 history records