Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f4e…5f09 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$493 (+8%) realized +$267 · open +$226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$396
7 days+$957
14 days+$840
30 days+$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$1,042
sports 16% +$24
tech 4% −$173
world 3% −$150
politics 3% −$83
finance 1% +$26
culture 1% −$46
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +10.3% -0.2% 38% 38% +13.8%
≤30d 36 -6.7% -15.6% 28% 28% +3.3%
≤90d 42 -11.1% -19.5% 26% 26% -1.7%
all 42 -11.1% -19.5% 26% 26% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 26% -1.7%
10% -27.2% 24% -11.1%
15% -34.3% 21% -19.7%
20% -40.7% 17% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$42 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1,479
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$226
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage56d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $840 $987 +$147 (+18%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 66¢ $360 $452 +$92 (+25%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $293 −$293 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$310 +31%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$136 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $754 +$361 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$47 +110%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$66 +233%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $456 +$391 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $190 +$217 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $20 +$97 +473%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $164 −$87 -53%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $57 −$4 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $39 −$4 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48 +$5 +11%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $105 +$45 +43%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$28 -55%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $200 −$96 -48%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $75 −$21 -27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $27 $0 -1%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% an Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 03 $15 $0 -3%
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 03 $80 −$35 -44%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $119 −$102 -86%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 16 $230 −$173 -75%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $91 −$1 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $50 +$27 +54%
Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Apr 27 $46 −$46 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $365 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $846 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,026 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $293 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $295 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $94 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $102 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,114 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $90 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $687 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $21 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $43 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $45 45h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 47h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $847 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $456 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $190 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.43 · official $1,479.43 (match) · 170 history records