Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f51…499d world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
other 35% +$1
politics 8% $0
finance 6% −$1
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.3% -13.5% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 6% -9.5%
all 35 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage444d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $52 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $3 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 $0 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $19 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2? May 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 30 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 05 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $12 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $47 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $52 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $52 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $52 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $52 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $18 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $39 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $39 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.76 · official $46.76 (match) · 102 history records