Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4F 0x4f52…22dc crypto 1567 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$61 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%1188W / 377L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day119.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$33
14 days−$28
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 657 -2.9% -12.2% 82% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 1565 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 32% -10.8%
≤90d 1565 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 32% -10.8%
all 1565 -2.8% -12.1% 76% 32% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 32% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 24% -19.4%
15% -28.2% 16% -27.2%
20% -35.2% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1188 / 377
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1565 / 1567
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day119.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1565 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Down 0¢ 100¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Down 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 239 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.76 · official $9.81 (match) · 3500 history records