Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4f53…2a6e weather 1437 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,680 (-2%) realized −$1,683 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1388W / 1L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day108.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$51
14 days+$15
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$64
sports 30% +$11
tech 2% +$4
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 583 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1389 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1389 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 1389 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$69 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$3,207
Realized−$1,683
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1388 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions47
Markets (closed)1389 / 1437
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day108.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 1389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Wallin (-1.5) vs Gombos (+1.5) Gombos 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Zhang (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) Zhang 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fuente vs. Santos: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Valle vs Weis Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Bejlek vs. Pliskova: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Tabilo Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Cilic Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Medjedovic Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Krumich vs. Wazny: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Gaston (-1.5) vs Gill (+1.5) Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Gill (-1.5) vs Gaston (+1.5) Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Damas vs. Baena: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Ortenzi vs Pace Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Sweeny vs. Fearnley: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Caniato (+1.5) Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Li vs. Birrell: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Cecchinato vs. Caniato: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Jorge vs. Teichmann: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Noskova vs. Zarazua: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Squire (-1.5) vs Ribecai (+1.5) Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Ribecai vs. Squire: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Keys vs. Wang: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Paquet (+1.5) Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Ribecai vs Squire Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Galan vs Piros Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 9m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 10m
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner BUY WAZABI 99¢ $23 12m
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner BUY WAZABI 99¢ $2 12m
Counter-Strike: AaB Bulls vs WAZABI - Map 1 Winner BUY WAZABI 99¢ $42 12m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $70 13m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $70 14m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $36 17m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $24 17m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 17m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 100¢ $70 25m
Set 2 Winner: Valle vs Weis BUY Valle 100¢ $50 30m
Set Handicap: Zhang (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) BUY Zhang 100¢ $70 37m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $70 54m
Fuente vs. Santos: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $30 55m
Bejlek vs. Pliskova: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 57m
Bejlek vs. Pliskova: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 57m
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) BUY Kokkinakis 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Bejlek vs. Pliskova: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Tabilo BUY Hijikata 100¢ $70 1h
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Medjedovic BUY Medjedovic 100¢ $70 1h
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Cilic BUY Humbert 100¢ $70 1h
Pino vs. Zeitune: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,207.48 · official $3,207.48 (match) · 3500 history records