Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4f55…08d3 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$153 (+0%) realized +$152 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%37W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$866per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$42
14 days+$75
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$152
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 37 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 37 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,066) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,039
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses37 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage53d
Avg bet$866
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,029 $1,029 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,109 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,120 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,117 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,110 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,102 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,093 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,091 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,080 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,076 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,066 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,063 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,061 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,038 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,049 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,047 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,045 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,032 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,028 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,027 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,019 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,020 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,007 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,007 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $989 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $1,007 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,005 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $1,001 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 06 $1,001 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $998 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,109 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,080 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,117 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,110 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,102 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $339 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $166 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $133 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $166 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $313 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $777 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,080 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,076 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,066 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,063 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,061 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,038.52 · official $1,038.52 (match) · 96 history records