Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f55…43ad crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,054 (-9%) realized −$1,054 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$1,396
crypto 27% −$614
culture 8% +$862
other 1% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 29% -8.7%
≤30d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 29% -8.7%
≤90d 23 -5.5% -14.5% 39% 26% -80.7%
all 26 +11.3% +0.7% 46% 31% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 31% -18.2%
10% -8.9% 31% -26.1%
15% -17.7% 31% -33.2%
20% -25.8% 31% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$515 vs −$526 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,054
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage178d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $80 −$66 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $97 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$46 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$26 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$29 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $61 −$46 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 16 $269 −$173 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 16 $98 +$125 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 16 $39 +$59 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 16 $12 +$28 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $117 −$94 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $193 −$70 -36%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 16 $598 −$568 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 16 $100 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 16 $168 +$431 +257%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? Apr 16 $168 −$34 -20%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Apr 15 $5,972 −$5,972 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 25 $1,396 +$4,576 +328%
XRP Up or Down - December 25, 12PM ET Dec 25 $901 +$29 +3%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 25 $966 +$862 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $14 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $15 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $47 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $46 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $49 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $223 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records