Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:36:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f56…db95 crypto 83 markets active 1d ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-9%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%43W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$25
sports 27% −$5
other 5% $0
weather 1% −$1
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -20.4% -28.0% 53% 26% -20.9%
≤30d 67 -20.7% -28.2% 52% 25% -21.6%
≤90d 68 -20.5% -28.1% 51% 25% -21.3%
all 83 -19.8% -27.4% 52% 29% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 29% -19.6%
10% -34.4% 13% -27.3%
15% -40.7% 8% -34.3%
20% -46.5% 6% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses43 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage148d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 13 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
T20 Series Australia vs. India, Women: Australia vs India Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
T20 Series New Zealand vs Zimbabwe, Women: New Zealand vs Zimbabwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series England Lions vs Pakistan A: England Lions vs Pakistan A Jun 12 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on January Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 11AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -86%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Oman (Game 1) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 59¢ $2 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 55¢ $2 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 87¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 84¢ $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 83¢ $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 84¢ $3 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 63¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 44¢ $0 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $3 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 62¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 39¢ $3 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL Australia 97¢ $6 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 84¢ $5 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Scotland 100¢ $4 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland 54¢ $2 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Ireland 54¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 48¢ $1 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 48¢ $2 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 55¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 80¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 81¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records