Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f56…dfda
weather · 92 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage43d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? No 96¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 28? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k an May 22 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 17? May 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 16? May 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 15? May 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 13? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 13? May 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 13? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 12? May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 12? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 12? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 12? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12? May 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 11? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11? May 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 11? May 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 11? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 11? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 89% +$9
politics 3% +$2
world 3% +$1
other 2% +$1
culture 2% −$13
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $15 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL No 99¢ $15 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 97¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? BUY No 2¢ $0 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? SELL No 100¢ $14 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 99¢ $14 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 98¢ $14 10d
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? BUY No 94¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 12% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 34 +0.4% -9.1% 12% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 91 +20.2% +8.7% 13% 1% -10.1%
all 91 +20.2% +8.7% 13% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 1% -10.1%
10% -1.7% 1% -18.7%
15% -11.2% 1% -26.6%
20% -19.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.73 · official $25.73 (match) · 307 history records