Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4f56…d7db sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$204 (+15%) realized +$237 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +26.3% +14.3% 86% 29% +7.1%
≤30d 7 +26.3% +14.3% 86% 29% +7.1%
≤90d 7 +26.3% +14.3% 86% 29% +7.1%
all 7 +26.3% +14.3% 86% 29% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 29% +7.1%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 29% -3.2%
15% -6.6% 29% -12.5%
20% -15.8% 29% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$1 · ×25.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×152.44 per $1 lost it wins $152.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 18¢ 6¢ $16 $6 −$10 (-65%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 37¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $154 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $273 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$10 +84%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $310 +$24 +8%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $4 −$1 -34%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $204 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $126 +$150 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 18¢ $16 41m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 82¢ $66 42m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 43¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 44¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 47¢ $198 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 49¢ $35 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $84 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $83 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $201 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 93¢ $76 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 90¢ $32 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $19 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 18¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 37¢ $87 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 37¢ $172 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $217 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $34 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.59 · official $5.54 (match) · 56 history records