Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f57…dceb world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$7
other 14% +$1
politics 11% +$1
finance 4% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 20 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 20 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.5%
all 44 -3.1% -12.4% 41% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage469d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $64 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $14 −$1 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $70 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $31 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $31 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $29 −$3 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $17 −$2 -14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $37 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus May 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Trump x Putin talk by Friday? Apr 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $1 $0 -6%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Mar 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $5 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $5 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $21 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records