Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4f5c…d8de other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$623 (-36%) realized −$555 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$590
sports 43% −$121
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-85.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -84.6%
≤30d 27 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -84.6%
≤90d 27 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -84.6%
all 27 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -84.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.1% 4% -84.6%
10% -86.5% 4% -86.1%
15% -87.8% 4% -87.4%
20% -89.0% 4% -88.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$30 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$555
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)27 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes $80 $31 −$49 (-61%)
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Yes 12¢ 10¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $55 −$53 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$97 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $30 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY $51 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY $62 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $82 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY $51 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes $41 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechi BUY $77 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $55 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 18h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes $10 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $31 18h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 24h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $31 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND DR Congo to score first vs. Portu BUY 16¢ $250 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 BUY Over $100 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $100 38h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $21 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in BUY $21 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 12¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.66 · official $351.66 · 41 history records