Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f5f…5123
world · 32 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage461d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $35 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -54%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% −$1
other 20% −$2
politics 11% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 44h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $37 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $37 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $37 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $37 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $34 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 72¢ $1 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $37 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $19 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $15 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $11 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.76 · official $36.76 (match) · 93 history records