Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4F 0x4f5f…7529 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-4%) realized −$26 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$195
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$210
tech 20% +$32
crypto 14% −$54
weather 10% −$138
economics 8% +$168
politics 7% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -45.8% -50.9% 30% 30% -29.0%
≤30d 11 -28.4% -35.3% 36% 36% -11.9%
≤90d 13 -28.0% -34.9% 38% 38% -17.9%
all 13 -28.0% -34.9% 38% 38% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 38% -17.9%
10% -41.1% 31% -25.7%
15% -46.8% 31% -32.9%
20% -52.0% 23% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$50 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage85d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $322 −$22 -7%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 17 $289 +$32 +11%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $116 +$168 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 14? Apr 13 $142 −$138 -98%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $100 +$49 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $300 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $322 6d
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $321 6d
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes $289 12d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $285 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $142 72d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t SELL Yes 100¢ $149 72d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $116 84d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 67¢ $100 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.50 · official $62.50 (match) · 30 history records