Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4f61…86ac
crypto · 72 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses23 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)64 / 72
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 8 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Up 68¢ 20¢ $203 $61 −$142 (-70%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+44%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Down 88¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? No 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $203 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +351%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +107%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -88%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -62%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 +$60 +59%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% +$18
other 17% −$106
sports 16% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 88¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 27% -8.3%
≤30d 64 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 27% -8.3%
≤90d 64 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 27% -8.3%
all 64 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 27% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 27% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -44.2% 22% -17.1%
15% -49.6% 16% -25.1%
20% -54.5% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.57 · official $107.57 (match) · 152 history records