Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4f62…d319 politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$51
other 31% −$10
sports 29% −$17
world 1% +$1
tech 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.6% -55.3% 0% 0% -46.4%
≤30d 5 -19.6% -27.3% 40% 0% -27.8%
≤90d 7 -13.7% -22.0% 43% 0% -22.8%
all 47 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,044) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage572d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 24 $31 $0 -1%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $24 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 26 $15 $0 +2%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Apr 26 $28 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 26 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next H Mar 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February? Mar 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Feb 22 $24 $0 -0%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? Feb 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Jan 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $24 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $22 $0 -0%
US bank failure by November 30? Dec 23 $21 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 25 $11 $0 -1%
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 25 $26 $0 -1%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $30 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran before September? Sep 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on July 31? Aug 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? Jun 25 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 21 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 21 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Sam Altman settle with his sister before April? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Mar 25 $1,542 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 25 $1,548 −$13 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 23? Mar 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mélanie Joly be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Feb 23 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Feb 23 $1,340 −$13 -1%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $1,350 −$11 -1%
Will Conor McGregor be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Jan 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Dec 18 $1,044 −$6 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 18 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Nov 29 $51 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $31 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $12 29d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $24 29d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $24 29d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 59d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 90¢ $27 59d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $28 59d
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $12 91d
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next H SELL No 100¢ $23 91d
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next H BUY No 100¢ $23 91d
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February? BUY No 98¢ $16 122d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? SELL No 96¢ $24 122d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? BUY No 96¢ $24 122d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 146d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 92¢ $24 147d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 92¢ $24 147d
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December? BUY No 96¢ $21 183d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 98¢ $22 183d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 98¢ $22 183d
US bank failure by November 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 211d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 81¢ $11 211d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 82¢ $11 211d
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? BUY No 99¢ $15 242d
Aspinall vs. Gane SELL Aspinall 76¢ $26 242d
Aspinall vs. Gane BUY Aspinall 77¢ $26 242d
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 100¢ $30 272d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.12 · official $20.12 (match) · 99 history records